Description: This paper is about the use of the table as a vehicle of pedagogic delivery

Description: This presentation compares continuous-time multi-factor affine cohort mortality models and presents estimation results for an affine multi-factor, multi-cohort mortality model.

Description: This paper analyzes climate change's impact on corn yield and insurance claims in Southern Minnesota through an analysis of how temperature and precipitation are expected to change over the next 30 years.

Description: View information about the 2019.1 Actuarial Research Conference Proceedings.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that proposes a stochastic population structure model based on the Leslie matrix, in which a Lee-Carter model framework is used to describe the future mortality and fertility changes.

Description: Abstracts from all presentations at the 41st Actuarial Research Conference.

Description: Equity-indexed annuities [EIAs] can be viewed as mutual funds wrapped around with various guarantees. A recent paper derived a closed form formula for pricing this dynamic guarantee if early withdrawal from the fund [before maturity] is not permitted. This paper studies the pricing of dynamic protection without a maturity date, i.e., the investor chooses the date to cash in the fund accumulation.

Description: This paper is the final report in a project commissioned by the Society of Actuaries Social Security Committee. The paper considers a variety of possible risk classification factors that could be used in estimating the value of any mortality based benefit for retirees. As many countries consider mandatory individual retirement accounts as their answer to a secure Social Security system, the question arises as to whether all workers can get true 'market value' annuities when they retire. It is clear today that private sector life annuities are priced assuming that the applicant is healthy-very healthy. Very little underwriting or risk classification now exists in the individual annuity marketplace. This paper reviews 45 recent research papers that look at factors that affect mortality after retirement. In particular, factors that seem to be important in predicting retirement mortality include: age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, income, occupation, marital status, religion, health behaviors, smoking, alcohol, and obesity. For each factor, this paper gives highlights relative to the named factor of the impact expected from that variable as described in the 45 reviewed research papers.

Description: In this paper, we propose measures of the risk that the value of the liabilities becomes larger than the value of the assets, and this especially for insurance companies. We study probabilities of mismatching and a degree of mismatching in unsegmented and multidimensional models of the balance, in which we stress the influence of interest rates on the active and passive side of the balance.

Description: A presentation on the principle of equivalent utility from the 2001 ARCH. Contains both the static and dynamic model as well as examples with exponential utility.

Description: The financing for Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, rather than the full-reserve system utilized in private insurance, and the financing conditions of the trust funds have more uncertainty than does the reserve in private insurance. Traditionally, the financing conditions have been decided by a deterministic approach using economic and demographic assumptions that rely upon negotiation among experts at various government agencies. This paper proposes an econometric approach, called the 'co-integrated multivariate time series model,' for forecasting the financing conditions of the trust funds. This stochastic approach not only establishes the interrelationships but also clarifies the co-movements among the economic assumptions. Furthermore, it helps analyze the original assumptions rather than the differences of the nonstationary assumption variables adopted by researchers in the past that are more difficult to interpret. Use of this approach permits the assessment of the probability distribution of the future balance of trust funds instead of assessing estimates from the three alternative deterministic assumptions. This distribution will provide policy-makers with a better assessment of stability of the trust funds.

Description: Design and future maintenance of an asset portfolio backing a new line of business is critical for proper asset and liability management for that business. Most portfolio optimization methods utilize linear or quadratic programming and require the user to specify the asset and liability attributes and cash flows into the program. The programmer must also supply an objective function to allow the program to find the optimal asset mix for the associated liabilities. Two problems with this approach are that the liability cash flows are fairly static and that one must frequently rebalance the portfolio. An alternative approach would be to develop a corporate model of both the assets and liabilities and incorporate various economic scenarios as input into the model. Asset strategies would be measured against a specific objective function that is calculated by the corporate model. Unfortunately, the majority of maximization algorithms available are very time consuming, and obtaining a reasonable portfolio mix becomes impractical. This paper overcomes this difficulty by using a very rapid optimization method from the chemical engineering profession called the Floppy Triangle. The paper includes an example of the use of this process to determine an optimal portfolio. It also discusses modifications of the algorithm that is required when the shorting of assets is not permitted.

Description: This 1998 presentation from the 33rd Actuarial Research Conference reports on a number of activities related to the relationship between the actuarial profession and the academic community, including: 1. feedback received during the related session at last year's Actuarial Research Conference, 2. some the results from the SOA Research Effectiveness Task Force survey, and 3. recent developments such as the joint CAS, CIA, SOA Task Force on Academic Relations.

Description: This paper analyzes the accuracy of the principal models used by U.S. insurance regulators to predict insolvencies in the property-liability insurance industry and compares these models with a relatively new solvency testing approach- cash flow simulation. Specifically, the authors compare the risk-based capital [RBC] system introduced by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners [NAIC] in 1994, the 'FAST' [audit ratio] system used by the NAIC, and a cash flow simulation model developed by the authors. Both the RBC and FAST systems are static, ratio based approaches to solvency testing, whereas the cash flow simulation model implements dynamic financial analysis. Logistic regression analysis is used to test the models for a large sample of solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers, using data from the years 1990-1992 to predict insolvencies over three-year prediction horizons. The authors find that the FAST system dominates RBC as a static method for predicting insurer insolvencies. Further, they find the cash flow simulation variables add significant explanatory power to the regressions and lead to more accurate solvency prediction than the ratio-based models taken alone.

Description: In December 1997, the Society of Actuaries held a conference whose focus was actuarial and financial modeling. During the course of that conference, one of the speakers mentioned a number of technologies his firm was using for modeling, which were either unfamiliar or only vaguely familiar to some of the audience. The purpose of this paper is to define each of the technologies mentioned during that presentation and to briefly describe their distinguishing characteristics. The technologies discussed in this paper are statistical pattern recognition [SPR], neural networks [NNs], genetic algorithms [GAs], simulated annealing, fractal analysis, chaos theory, rule induction, data fusion algorithms [DFAs], data compression, fuzzy logic, case-based reasoning, and expert systems.

Description: This paper develops a simplified model for a pension fund, both deterministic and stochastic versions are presented. The probability distribution of the fund is derived incorporating the claims distribution and other parameters. Expected value and the variance of the fund are derived. Modifications required for the model when the interest rate is a moving average process are developed. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1998 Vol. 2.

Description: ARCH Research Clearing House 1998.1 Table of Contents

Description: This is the abstract of a paper about developing a model that will provide insight into the true inherent value of a property-liability insurance company from a market perspective.

Description: One of the most important influences on the development of an insurance market and on the development of professions, such as the actuarial profession, is the nature of regulation. This paper looks at four main economic models of regulation: 1. Market socialism, 2. Freedom with publicity, 3. Public interest, and 4. Public choice theory. The role of profession and other sophisticated products of the market order are also analysed.

Description: The main aim of this paper is to apply some of the techniques of modern time series and econometric analysis to analyse investment data in order to better understand the nature of long run relationships in investment series typically used in stochastic investment models. The paper attempts to identify and address fundamental issues that need to be considered before developing a particular stochastic investment model.

Description: This paper suggests ways of presenting ideas from the theory of compound interest and actuarial mathematics using simulation on spreadsheets. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1997 Vol. 1.

Description: This paper addresses the evaluation of long-term returns when the short interest rate is modeled by a general diffusion process. By deriving the long-term return dynamics and invoking the Feyman-Kac formula, the long-term return is represented as the solution of a partial differential equation. A finite difference method is derived for the valuation of the long-term return. The method could be used for hedging interest rate risk, pricing and managing interest rate derivatives and interest rate sensitive insurance products. Numerical examples are included.

Description: This paper is a sequel to Shapiro et. al. in that it discusses a similar role for CAI in topics specific to the text Actuarial Mathematics, by Bowers et. al 1986. The topics covered are the previous topics of actuarial notation, basic concepts, and what-if analysis, along with some new ideas for the presentation of stochastic models.

Description: These are the abstract, outline, graphs and tables of the paper “Conclusions from Michigan Studies of Social Security Financing”. By such studies we mean the papers prepared during the past five years by actuarial students and Cecil Nesbitt, and which have appeared in ARCH. The paper is in three parts: A lengthy Abstract, followed by 17 pages of text, graphs, tables and references. The third part is a 10 page Appendix which gives the proofs of text statements.

Description: In the past few years, SoA members and leaders have raised questions about future needs for actuarial skills, globalization of markets, and the appropriate focus of the present education system in preparing actuaries for their professional futures. As a consequence of these questions, the SoA Board of Governors set aside a major portion of its January 1994 meeting to discuss the education of actuaries, with primary consideration being given to a longer horizon than the immediate future. Chris Daykin, representing the Institute of Actuaries, reported that the Institute was incorporating fundamental changes to its basic Education and Examination [E&E] system. These changes were aimed at focusing more on fundamental principles and away from details of practice.

Description: Traditional mean-variance method does not take skewness of the random rate of return into consideration. It only considers minimum variance for a given acceptable rate of return, which limited the probability of obtaining higher rate of return. If the skewness of return for the portfolio is incorporated into model of traditional approach, then the resulting non-linear programing model is not computational efficient, which certainly is complicated. On the other hand, possibilistic programming provides more efficient techniques to solve the imprecision nature of rate of return and also preserves the original linear model.

Description: This paper establishes the need for home equity conversion schemes for the elderly. It then provides a review of literature pertinent to reverse mortgages paying particular attention to the different types of reverse mortgages and their associated risks. In an attempt to better quantify the general appreciation risk faced by financial institutions issuing reverse mortgages, ARIMA techniques are employed to model Canadian house prices in both current and real dollar terms.

Description: This paper suggests a possible flexible solution to the time and resource problems of running a large number of stochastic interest rate scenarios, by selecting a representative subset. Each interest rate scenario consists of 30 future spot yield curves, where a reasonable number of points are specified on each curve such as 12. The distribution of the scenarios is approximated by the subset and each scenario in the subset has equal weight. The method is independent of the interest rate generator used.

Description: This paper presents a new methodology for obtaining fast algorithms and closed form solutions for pricing callable bonds in continuous time models. Results are directly applicable to regulatory scenario testing, immunization and market value accounting.

Description: This paper focuses on the fact that life and annuity reserves that are determined from discounted case flows mask the dynamic nature of interest rates. To study this effect in a stochastic interest environment, the authors look at a change in discounted reserves. By looking at the appropriate measure of change, the paper explores potential short-term consequences of changes in the interest environment.

Description: This is the fourth paper on n-year roll forward reserve financing of public benefit systems, especially Old-Age, Survivors and disability Insurance OASDI, prepared by University of Michigan faculty and students. As the papers have developed, some ideas have been simplified, while others have become more complex. It is concluded that the theoretical model requires further attention. This research can be extended to expand our knowledge of OASDI financing and the applicability of n-year roll forward reserve financing.

Description: This is a Fellowship Credit Research Paper. A portfolio of different insurance policies such as temporary, endowment and whole-life insurance policies is studied in a stochastic mortality and interest environment. The first two moments of the present value of the benefits of the portfolio are derived. The riskiness of the portfolio as measured by the variance of the present value of the benefits can be divided into an insurance risk and an investment risk in two different ways. One way leads to a more natural interpretation of the two risk components. A simple portfolio is used to illustrate the results.

Description: In this paper we discuss the link between the price of a contingent claim and its replicating strategies. We compute the replicating strategies for some contingent claims when the price of stocks are modeled using either the Wiener process or the Poisson process. These replicating strategies are essential knowledge if one wishes to implement a dynamic trading strategy.

Description: Actuarial Research Clearing House 1995.1 -- Table of Contents

Description: This is an announcement for the 30th Annual Actuarial Research Conference.

Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: In the past, discussion of actuarial education has focused on curriculum content [what is to be learned] and mode of delivery [university course versus part-time correspondence course]. Little attention has been paid to how students learn, and how that learning can be facilitated to develop actuaries with the knowledge, skills and values the profession needs. This paper deals with the university-related content of a more comprehensive paper prepared by the authors for the 1993 Convention of The Institute of Actuaries of Australia. It concentrates on students' learning in the undergraduate actuarial program at Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia, but it is likely that many of its findings and conclusions would apply equally to university actuarial courses elsewhere. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, Vol. 1.

Description: This is the abstract for the paper entitled 'Pricing Long Term Insurance Contracts.' This paper considers several models describing the changes in the needs of the insured for care over time. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, VOL. 1.

Description: The Cash Flow Valuation Method has recently been adopted for valuation of annuity products in Canada and has application to all other life insurance products. Under this method, the statement liability for a block of business is the value of the assets required to enable the insurer to run off the block. The method therefore involves both assets and liabilities and reflects the insurer's investment policy.

Description: Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994.2 -- Table of Contents

Description: This paper explores and develops some initial ideas of roll-forward reserve funding of Social Security. It reports on the work of actuarial students and teachers for an 8-week study period coordinated with the National Science Foundation program of Research Experience for Undergraduate grants. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, VOL. 1.

Description: Easy access computing power is harnessed to approximate ruin probabilities. The dynamics of the traditional insurance model are stated in the form of period to period constraints. This allows the development of a life-table with the survival probabilities for a given set of parameters. Given the spreadsheet approach of the model, sensitivity analysis to study the impact of different parameter values and loss variable distributions can be easily implemented.

Description: Concomitant with the industrial revolution, the function of providing old age income shifted from families and local institutions to government social security and private pension plans. The history of this change in the U.K. and U.S. is reviewed. A simple mathematical model provides insights into the role played by three rates [the rate of increase of the working population, the time preference rate, and the rate of real wage growth] in determining optimum funding policy. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, Vol. 2.

Description: Letters to the national association of insurance commissioners life/health actuarial task force regarding the development of the new annuity non-forfeiture law. Letters are addressed to Mr. Howard Kayton, Mr. Allan Roby, and Mr. John Montgomery. Also included is a demonstration of the workings of a two tiered annuity.

Description: This abstract describes research related to Optional Coupon Reinvestment Bonds

Description: Pension funds are usually either defined benefit or defined contribution funds. In Australia in recent years, for a number of reasons, some pension funds have offered the 'greater of,' these two benefits. Such a benefit design can be valued using contingent claims valuation techniques since it is equivalent to an option on the maximum of two random benefit amounts - one equal to a multiple of salary and the other the accumulation of a percentage of salary at an earnings rate. This paper overviews some of the issues in applying contingent claims valuation techniques to the valuation of this style of benefit. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, Vol. 1.

Description: This paper is a report on research for undergraduate experience grants held for 8 weeks under the direction of Cecil Nesbitt. The topic of the research was Social Security Financing and Related Matters. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper presents a new perspective on three basic financial quantities: assets, liabilities and surplus. The new perspective is developed through a re-examination of the fundamental concepts inherent in these quantities. This re-examination clarifies the difference between the concept and the various rules commonly used to establish their numerical value. With the benefit of this clarification, an alternate approach to the development of surplus is presented. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This paper discusses contracts sold by states which promised to provide tuition in the future for a fixed price. Because these contracts provide a benefit whose dollar value is uncertain at the time of sale, these contracts contain significant risks to the states and create a challenge to the actuaries who opine on the adequacy of the trust funds to provide the benefits promised by these contracts. This article discusses some of the implications of the method used by the major states to project tuition inflation and explores other possible methods. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This paper is about a concept known as the 'rate of transmission of information' or, more simply, as the 'information rate.' The authors establish the equivalence of arbitrage-free economic systems and a generalized betting model in such a way that the interpretation of the information rate, as the maximum rate of increase of an investor's capital, is preserved. As a corollary to this result, they show that the difference in the information rate between models represents the achievable incremental return associated with the superior predictor model. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, Vol. 3.

Description: This paper shows at a relatively low cost, computer assisted instructional techniques can materially improve both classroom instruction and independent study. This discussion is limited to the material used in a Penn State mathematics of finance course. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper describes the nature of a multimedia computer-based colloquium and demonstrates how the technology can be used within an actuarial science instruction setting and describes the steps taken to ease the transition into this environment. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1992 Vol. 1 .

Description: In this paper the ad-hoc Bayesian derivation of the Whittaker method is replaced with a formal Bayesian specification, and then it is shown that with this specification it is possible to complete the graduation without making an arbitrary selection of the smoothing parameter. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1992, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper gives a brief review of advanced time series models, the state space model, using Monte Carlo techniques and subsequently illustrates their usefulness to practicing actuaries. The models employed allow for the possibilities of nonnormal errors and nonlinear functionals in the state equation, the observational equation or both. The approach is illustrated with several examples and data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Description: This paper examines four and-a-half years of prescription records for an elderly population who have relatively comprehensive out-of-hospital drug coverage under the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly program in Pennsylvania. The result is a discussion of the determination of non-parametric estimations of the distributions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, Vol 1.

Description: Option bounds are obtained in a discrete-time framework with transaction costs. The model represents an extension of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein binomial option pricing model to cover the case of proportional transaction costs. The method proceeds by constructing the appropriate replicating portfolio at each trading interval. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper presents the application of the asset share technique of pricing to Home Equity Line of Credit insurance. The paper's objective is to provide useful tools when developing a new HELOC product including projections for marketing and underwriting, distinctions between desirable and undesirable product design features, and development of premium rate structures. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2

Description: This paper develops a theory for the valuation of some kinds of interest sensitive cash flows. A process is derived which takes as input, assumptions about the capital markets and policy holder behaviour, and produces as output interest and decrement assumptions which can be used for conventional actuarial discounting. The methodology is illustrated using some idealized, but tractable, models of conventional non-par whole life insurance. The method is also applied to a simple Universal Life plan. The paper concludes by considering some of the problems encountered when applying the ideas to more practical problems.

Description: This paper looks back at how actuarial research began, at the changing patterns in actuarial research, and makes some recommendations. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990 VOL. 1

Description: This research paper examines the justification of using the one-factor general equilibrium model of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross to model the term structure of interest rates and their volatility. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House ARCH 1990 Vol. 1.

Description: This paper contains personal reflections by Cecil Nesbitt of his 60 years as an actuarial student, teacher, practitioner and researcher to highlight actuarial highlights in North America since 1900. This article is not intended to be a definitive history of actuarial science developments in North America since the beginning of the century. Instead, readers should turn first to 'Actuarial Mathematics' [Proc. Symp. Appl. Math. 35, 1986] and peruse it alongside this article to gain detailed, introductory overviews of the diverse actuarial models that will be mentioned in this paper. The non-exhaustive list of references at the end of this paper is selected to aid such review by pointing the way to other more complete lists in regard to various topics mentioned herein. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, Vol.1.

Description: The two basic considerations in a pension plan valuation are the choice of actuarial cost methods and actuarial assumptions. This paper deals with the assumptions. The concern in this regard is what actuaries are doing and why. There are explicit criteria why particular assumptions are chosen, and these have often been discussed in the pension literature. However, there also are implicit criteria, which, while seldom discussed in the literature, can dominate the valuation. The goal of this paper is to quantify some of these criteria, and thereby provide a basis for further discussion and research.

Description: The purpose of the present paper is to discuss some of the methods by which fertility variations can be incorporated into population forecasts. From ARCH 1984, Vol. 1.

Description: Presented at 1983 Actuarial Research Conference. Discussion focuses on improving coordination between practicing actuaries, academic actuaries and non-actuarial academics. The situations in Canada and the UK are also discussed. The emphasis is on research and communications among the different parties.

Description: The subject of this paper is a financial model for pension planning purposes. The focus of the model is from an individual's point of view with the idea to assist him/her in planning for a financially secure retirement income. The model is dynamic and stochastic, operates in nominal and real terms, and goes beyond the age of retirement. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1981, Vol. 1.

Description: These notes are a follow-up to the paper 'Introduction to the Dynamics of Pension Funding' by the same authors and published in Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1976, Vol. 28. The purpose of that paper was to provide an introduction to mathematical principles applicable to pension funding under dynamic conditions of population growth, inflation, and automatic adjustment of benefits. The first note discusses a general contribution formula and a number of special cases and modifications. The second note concerns aggregate cost funding when the actuary uses assumptions about cost factors which differ consistently from cost experience. The final note concerns the variation of the annuity unit under a variable annuity program patterned after the plan employed by the College Retirement Equities Fund [CREF]. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1981, Vol. 1.

Description: In today's atmosphere, the high returns available on bonds have attracted much investor interest, and it is only natural that fixed income investors look for ways to assure the maintenance of high returns on their bond portfolios. This paper explains how bond immunization offers that potential.